Abstract: A Review of Dog Bites in the United States from 1958 to 2016: Systematic Review of the Peer-Reviewed Literature
“Since 2001, Pit Bull type breeds have accounted for the largest subset of dog bites reported in the medical literature (37.5%), with mixed breeds (13.3%) and German Shepherds (7.1%) accounting for the 2nd and 3rd largest minority groups during this same time period. In addition to these findings, we evaluated the effectiveness of breed specific legislation in Denver, CO, the largest jurisdiction in the United States with a pit bull ban in place. Since 2001, 5.7% of bites in Denver, CO were attributed to Pit Bull type breeds compared to 54.4% in the remainder of the United States.”
Notably you’ll notice that a ban, not even just proper cage and muzzle regulation, was the result of an ~89.5% reduction in pitbull attacks (1-(5.7/54.4)).
This is from a paper on the effectiveness of Pit Bull bans and the human factors involved in the breed’s behaviour:
Pit Bull Bans and the Human Factors Affecting Canine Behavior
It says, among other things: “Health professionals and animal behaviorists point out that breed is only one of “[s]everal interacting factors” that determine a dog’s likelihood to attack. 21”
Meaning this paper acknowledges the role of breed as a confounding genetic factor affecting dog aggression.
You can doubt the authenticity of the studies I’ve listed all the way down, bringing up allegiances and ulterior motives, as well as statistical inconsistencies due to missing data about the exact number of Pit Bulls in the US.
Here’s one final nail in the coffin, look at the following article:
Breed differences in canine aggression
This shows clear as day differences in aggressive response by dog breeds.
The second one is a law review, which is not a relevant paper (and I think not a paper at all but I’m not a law student). So it’d only be worth anything if a witness had suffient credentials, and no alternate motive, and then it’d still lack peer review, academic oversight, …
The paper needs to be on-topic, I can’t expect a biology paper to get art history right. Usually papers constrain themselves to topics they know for that reason, but for a law review I can see why that isn’t possible.
Papers also make their statements more directly, so you would find a more clear statement about breeds and attacks. The fact this is missing should give you some warning signs.
You did well then digging out the third source, which is fine again. You should have just skipped the second one entirely, since it’s not primary anyway, just citing.
This third might be what wikipedia was using, numbers look familiar.
Fourth source looks fine.
It is about a different topic, agression not violence, but you use it relevantly.
While checking the first source I saw the full results section, containing “Prior to 1980, the majority of dog bites reported in peer-reviewed literature were attributed to the German Shepherd breed (68.4%). From 1981–2000 German Shepherds still accounted for the largest minority of breeds identified (20.1%), with mixed breeds (19.6%) and Pit Bull type breeds (14.1%) accounting for the 2nd and 3rd largest minorities. Since 2001, Pit Bull type breeds have accounted for the largest subset of dog bites reported in the medical literature (37.5%) […]” continuing with your quote.
It is interesting to note that German Shepherds apparently used to take the same statistical position you are arguing pitbulls hold in the present.
Ok now. You mentioned “Notably you’ll notice that a ban […] was the result of an ~89.5% reduction in pitbull attacks (1-(5.7/54.4)).”.
That is mostly meaningless for our purposes, i.e. determining what factor dog breed plays in dog-human harm.
Firstly, it’s a ratio, so speaking of reduction is incorrect. Reduction refers to numbers, so you need to consider the total amount. If the total number of dog attacks remained stable, then this would be accurate.
analogy
A simple example for this problem: If most people were driving small cars, most pedestrian deaths would be caused by small cars. If you then ban small cars, the pedestrian fatalities caused by small cars should go down. As both a ratio and in absolute terms. However the total number of pedestrian fatalities by all cars should go up, since people would mostly be pushed into large cars, that kill more people per driving hour, while hours driven by car shouldn’t be overly affected.
This here isn’t even considering driver mentality, it’s merely a consequence of not factoring in usage rates (or breed populations for dogs).
analogy 2
Now for the other effect, take suicides. If you consider suicides per rail mile, you could find train infrastructure particularly prone to suicides. But if you then ban trains you will see a decrease in rails suicides but a corresponding increase in say bridge suicides, so all of a sudden a different infrastructure becomes equally problematic, because the ground cause here is mental health of people, not suicide-enabling infrastructure.
This would be the analog to problematic owners finding a different breed or animal to make problematic, making breed bans a hopeless case of whack-amole.
If that were the case though, it would be precisely not the point you wanted, since it would mean banning pitbulls did nothing for the underlying problem: dog-human harm (not pitbull-human harm).
I saw the third article have a discussion on more useful metrics for judging pitbulls, but ima just roll my own rq:
As mentioned above the next step would be seeing if limiting pitbulls reduces dog attacks in total, not just pitbull attacks. That would cover cases like problematic owners shifting breeds.
An even more general one, one the article makes, is factoring in total dog ownership. That also checks if maybe reduczions are just people having less dogs in general.
Basically you’d want the same you have for for example large medical studies, factoring in many quantities and doing a multi-variable correlation analysis to hopefully determine all the various independent correlations and have a better chance at establishing causes.
After that you could see further. You may for example reach the conclusion that the only way is either adressing owners, or banning all large dogs, which if the case should change your strategy for action. If in that case you had already banned pitbulls you’d have shot yourself in the foot, since them people would be sick of it, the motivation would be used up, and you’d have to more than start over for the next breed or the actual wider methods.
On the other hand if it is indeed mostly a breed issue you would have far better arguments for getting breed-specific regulations.
The 4th source is a good start for establishing hypotheses if pitbulls are shown to be a problematic breed. You would need another metric like harm potential for the strenth, bit damage, etc. of dogs, since an agression rating led by chihuahuas is perhaps not the most useful here. Then you can multiply agression and harm potential for an estimate of natural inclination to endanger humans.
I haven’t looked deeper into the paper as to how “aggression” was measured, that method would also have to be airtight against training, so probably measured for dogs trained in a controlled environment etc…
If you do find a controlled link between such a harm potential rating and actual human harm using the methods of the last section, then that would immediately show both problem and solution. You would have a method by which to rate any new breeds or vatiations and could write regulations to target that. So even if someone creates new breeds to target the aggressive dog market, the regulations would cover that without any new changes. And similarly you could breed pitbulls to be more passive and get that variation exempt from limitations. That should probably cover most peoples interests in this debate.
It is not much better. Note that one of the sources of the one commenting explicitly states
In contrast to what has been reported in the news media, the data from this study CANNOT be used to infer any breed-specific risk for dog bite fatalities (e.g., neither pit bull-type dogs nor Rottweilers can be said to be more “dangerous” than any other breed based on this study).
Which is the commenters purpose in referencing that study. The study explicitly says it does not support their opinion.
Yeah, I do explain the same further down, didn’t see the need to specifically highlight that. Much better doesn’t mean good, just a lot better than the first attempt that had almost nothing of substance and was actively off-putting.
Using a paper to make a point it doesn’t support is better than not using papers and citing sketchy factoids.
Alright.
This is from the NHS:
Abstract: A Review of Dog Bites in the United States from 1958 to 2016: Systematic Review of the Peer-Reviewed Literature
“Since 2001, Pit Bull type breeds have accounted for the largest subset of dog bites reported in the medical literature (37.5%), with mixed breeds (13.3%) and German Shepherds (7.1%) accounting for the 2nd and 3rd largest minority groups during this same time period. In addition to these findings, we evaluated the effectiveness of breed specific legislation in Denver, CO, the largest jurisdiction in the United States with a pit bull ban in place. Since 2001, 5.7% of bites in Denver, CO were attributed to Pit Bull type breeds compared to 54.4% in the remainder of the United States.”
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5636534/
Notably you’ll notice that a ban, not even just proper cage and muzzle regulation, was the result of an ~89.5% reduction in pitbull attacks (1-(5.7/54.4)).
This is from a paper on the effectiveness of Pit Bull bans and the human factors involved in the breed’s behaviour:
Pit Bull Bans and the Human Factors Affecting Canine Behavior
It says, among other things: “Health professionals and animal behaviorists point out that breed is only one of “[s]everal interacting factors” that determine a dog’s likelihood to attack. 21”
Meaning this paper acknowledges the role of breed as a confounding genetic factor affecting dog aggression.
https://via.library.depaul.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1336&context=law-review
Digging into that link they provide for this claim, we find,
Breeds of dogs involved in fatal human attacks in the United States between 1979 and 1998
“As in recent years, Rottweilers were the most commonly reported breed involved in fatal attacks, followed by pit bull-type dogs”
https://www.avma.org/sites/default/files/resources/javma_000915_fatalattacks.pdf?mf_ct_campaign=msn-feed
You can doubt the authenticity of the studies I’ve listed all the way down, bringing up allegiances and ulterior motives, as well as statistical inconsistencies due to missing data about the exact number of Pit Bulls in the US.
Here’s one final nail in the coffin, look at the following article:
Breed differences in canine aggression
This shows clear as day differences in aggressive response by dog breeds.
https://topdogtips.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Breed-Differences-in-Canine-Aggression.pdf
That’s better.
Your first source is good, no issues there.
The second one is a law review, which is not a relevant paper (and I think not a paper at all but I’m not a law student). So it’d only be worth anything if a witness had suffient credentials, and no alternate motive, and then it’d still lack peer review, academic oversight, …
The paper needs to be on-topic, I can’t expect a biology paper to get art history right. Usually papers constrain themselves to topics they know for that reason, but for a law review I can see why that isn’t possible.
Papers also make their statements more directly, so you would find a more clear statement about breeds and attacks. The fact this is missing should give you some warning signs.
You did well then digging out the third source, which is fine again. You should have just skipped the second one entirely, since it’s not primary anyway, just citing.
This third might be what wikipedia was using, numbers look familiar.
Fourth source looks fine.
It is about a different topic, agression not violence, but you use it relevantly.
While checking the first source I saw the full results section, containing “Prior to 1980, the majority of dog bites reported in peer-reviewed literature were attributed to the German Shepherd breed (68.4%). From 1981–2000 German Shepherds still accounted for the largest minority of breeds identified (20.1%), with mixed breeds (19.6%) and Pit Bull type breeds (14.1%) accounting for the 2nd and 3rd largest minorities. Since 2001, Pit Bull type breeds have accounted for the largest subset of dog bites reported in the medical literature (37.5%) […]” continuing with your quote.
It is interesting to note that German Shepherds apparently used to take the same statistical position you are arguing pitbulls hold in the present.
Ok now. You mentioned “Notably you’ll notice that a ban […] was the result of an ~89.5% reduction in pitbull attacks (1-(5.7/54.4)).”.
That is mostly meaningless for our purposes, i.e. determining what factor dog breed plays in dog-human harm.
Firstly, it’s a ratio, so speaking of reduction is incorrect. Reduction refers to numbers, so you need to consider the total amount. If the total number of dog attacks remained stable, then this would be accurate.
analogy
A simple example for this problem: If most people were driving small cars, most pedestrian deaths would be caused by small cars. If you then ban small cars, the pedestrian fatalities caused by small cars should go down. As both a ratio and in absolute terms. However the total number of pedestrian fatalities by all cars should go up, since people would mostly be pushed into large cars, that kill more people per driving hour, while hours driven by car shouldn’t be overly affected.
This here isn’t even considering driver mentality, it’s merely a consequence of not factoring in usage rates (or breed populations for dogs).
analogy 2
Now for the other effect, take suicides. If you consider suicides per rail mile, you could find train infrastructure particularly prone to suicides. But if you then ban trains you will see a decrease in rails suicides but a corresponding increase in say bridge suicides, so all of a sudden a different infrastructure becomes equally problematic, because the ground cause here is mental health of people, not suicide-enabling infrastructure.
This would be the analog to problematic owners finding a different breed or animal to make problematic, making breed bans a hopeless case of whack-amole.
If that were the case though, it would be precisely not the point you wanted, since it would mean banning pitbulls did nothing for the underlying problem: dog-human harm (not pitbull-human harm).
I saw the third article have a discussion on more useful metrics for judging pitbulls, but ima just roll my own rq:
As mentioned above the next step would be seeing if limiting pitbulls reduces dog attacks in total, not just pitbull attacks. That would cover cases like problematic owners shifting breeds.
An even more general one, one the article makes, is factoring in total dog ownership. That also checks if maybe reduczions are just people having less dogs in general.
Basically you’d want the same you have for for example large medical studies, factoring in many quantities and doing a multi-variable correlation analysis to hopefully determine all the various independent correlations and have a better chance at establishing causes.
After that you could see further. You may for example reach the conclusion that the only way is either adressing owners, or banning all large dogs, which if the case should change your strategy for action. If in that case you had already banned pitbulls you’d have shot yourself in the foot, since them people would be sick of it, the motivation would be used up, and you’d have to more than start over for the next breed or the actual wider methods.
On the other hand if it is indeed mostly a breed issue you would have far better arguments for getting breed-specific regulations.
The 4th source is a good start for establishing hypotheses if pitbulls are shown to be a problematic breed. You would need another metric like harm potential for the strenth, bit damage, etc. of dogs, since an agression rating led by chihuahuas is perhaps not the most useful here. Then you can multiply agression and harm potential for an estimate of natural inclination to endanger humans.
I haven’t looked deeper into the paper as to how “aggression” was measured, that method would also have to be airtight against training, so probably measured for dogs trained in a controlled environment etc…
If you do find a controlled link between such a harm potential rating and actual human harm using the methods of the last section, then that would immediately show both problem and solution. You would have a method by which to rate any new breeds or vatiations and could write regulations to target that. So even if someone creates new breeds to target the aggressive dog market, the regulations would cover that without any new changes. And similarly you could breed pitbulls to be more passive and get that variation exempt from limitations. That should probably cover most peoples interests in this debate.
It is not much better. Note that one of the sources of the one commenting explicitly states
Which is the commenters purpose in referencing that study. The study explicitly says it does not support their opinion.
Yeah, I do explain the same further down, didn’t see the need to specifically highlight that. Much better doesn’t mean good, just a lot better than the first attempt that had almost nothing of substance and was actively off-putting.
Using a paper to make a point it doesn’t support is better than not using papers and citing sketchy factoids.